On Sunday, 40 soldiers from Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force participated in the biennial Talisman Sabre exercise in northern Australia, jointly held by the US and Australia.
Japan’s involvement in the massive military event followed a flight on June 23rd of one of its P-3Cs over contested waters. The patrol plane flew about 100 kilometers west from the Philippine island of Palawan into the South China Sea. The craft came close to Reed Bank, claimed by both Manila and Beijing, and then headed back to base. On board, three Filipino military personnel accompanied the Japanese crew of 13.
Tokyo says the plane, taking part in a two-day exercise with the Philippines, was on a mock search-and-rescue mission to find a missing ship. Not everyone was convinced, however, as the flight path looked like a rehearsal for something else. “It’s likely we will see Japan doing joint surveillance and reconnaissance in the South China Sea in the coming years,” said Narushige Michishita of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “It is going to be with the US, Australia, the Philippines, and others.”
The June 23rd flight of the P-3C came six weeks after the first joint Japanese-Philippines naval exercise.
Japan has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, but the presence of Tokyo’s Self-Defense Force there is making Beijing, which thinks most of that body of water belongs to China, particularly unhappy. “We hope that the sides in question do not play up and create tensions on purpose, and that any interactions between those countries would actually contribute to regional peace and stability, rather than the opposite,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang, speaking to reporters about the exercise.
And Chinese generals are also upset. “The United States used to have military bases in Southeast Asia, like in the Philippines and even in Vietnam, and they have military cooperation with Singapore, so American military presence in the South China Sea is acceptable to China,” Chinese Major General Zhu Chenghu of China’s National Defense University said late last month. “As for the Japanese military presence, it is very difficult for the Chinese people and the Chinese government to accept it.”
Unhappy or not, China has no choice but to watch Tokyo extend its influence in the rim surrounding the South China Sea. Countries in the region support a Japanese presence as does the US. Japan, therefore, looks to be on course to send its Self-Defense Forces—its military—far from its North Asian shores. At the moment, the only thing that can stop Japanese generals and admirals from going abroad is … the Japanese public.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to get the Diet, Japan’s national legislature, to pass a law authorizing the country’s forces to come to the aid of allies, in other words, a law adopting the notion of collective self-defense. Currently, Japanese law permits the Self-Defense Force to defend only Japan.
The hawkish Abe has the votes to push the legislation through the Diet, but he cannot be seen to sponsor a change the public does not want. “Ultimately, it depends on public opinion,” says Katsuya Okada, the head of the Democratic Party of Japan, the primary opposition party.
The public does not want that change. Recent surveys show only a quarter of the Japanese are in favor of such a law. Slightly more than 60 percent are against. Abe has lost some popularity over the bill.
It doesn’t help that Abe’s bill is considered by many to be unconstitutional. The American general Douglas MacArthur, the “second emperor,” came up with the “Peace Constitution,” which was adopted—actually imposed—during the occupation of Japan in 1946. By Article 9 of that document the Japanese people “forever” renounced both “war” and “the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.” They also promised “never” to maintain “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential.”
The Japanese have “interpreted” Article 9 to permit the creation and maintenance of the Self Defense Forces, and they have then gone on to accept even more egregious interpretations of that provision. Yet who can blame the Japanese for constitution-bending? As is often said, the country sits in the middle of a dangerous neighborhood.
As a result, Japan is now preparing to fight foreign wars when it is not allowed to even have a military. Abe may not get his law authorizing collective self-defense, but Japanese in uniform, flying over the South China Sea and walking on the Australian plains, are interpreting—actually rewriting—the Constitution.